Testing Ricardian Neutrality with an Intertemporal Stochastic Model

The purpose of this paper is to develop and estimate a stochastic-intertemporal model of consumption behavior and to use it for testing a version of the Ricardian-equivalence proposition with time series data. Two channels that may give rise to deviations from this proposition are specified: Finite horizons and liquidity constraints. In addition, the model incorporates explicitly the roles of taxes, substitution between public , and private consumption, and different degrees of consumer goods' durability. The evidence, based on data for Israel in the first half of the 1980s, supports the Ricardian neutrality specification, yielding plausible estimates for the behavioral parameters of the aggregate consumption function.

Propogation of Shocks in a High-Inflation Economy: Israel, 1980-85

The purpose of this paper is to provide empirical answers to questions related to the propagation of shocks in a high-inflation economy. Do one-time inflationary shocks give rise to long-term persistence, or inertia? Do balance of payments' shocks trigger a process that, through indexation and monetary accommodation, results in long-term changes in inflation? Within the context of a specific hypothesis, influential both in policy discussions and in economic analyses, the paper addresses these issues using Israeli data and vector-autoregression techniques. The evidence does not support the hypothesis that one-time nominal shocks have a persistent effect on the inflation rate, or the hypothesis that long-term changes in inflation are triggered by autonomous fluctuations in the trade balance.

Macroeconomic performance before and after disinflation in Israel

The Israeli stabilization program of 1985 is generally considered one of the most successful such programs in years. Under it, the inflation rate plummeted from about 400 percent a year to about 15-20 percent a year. This paper examines how stabilization affected other key economic variables after 1985. The authors particularly struck by the immediate, abrupt reduction in the rate of inflation and the timing and impact of disinflation on other real variables. For more than two years after the program, a private consumption boom was accompanied by increased economic activity, relatively high real wages and real interest rates, and a low real exchange rate. The recent rise in unemployment seems to reflect the beginning of a process of structural adjustment whereby resources are reallocated across the economy. This process will allow an increase in long term growth after adjustment is completed. In reducing inflation, the program seems to have had the same effectiveness as other shock treatment programs; a sharp and immediate disinflation. In terms of the real costs of disinflation, the program may seem more gradualist. The real costs, in terms of increased unemployment, were postponed for several years and in the transition there was actually a boom in economic activity.Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Stabilization,Macroeconomic Management,Statistical&Mathematical Sciences

Interest Rates, Money Supply Announcements, and Monetary Base Announcements

This paper presents a new set of empirical regularities on the link between interest rates, money supply announcements and monetary base announcements. Among the main findings reported are: (i) unexpected increases in the announced monetary base have a significantly positive effect on interest rates during the period from October 1979 to October 1982; (ii) although unexpected money supply and monetary base announcements have the same impact on interest rates, they have different implications for the future behavior of the money supply and monetary base; (iii) the significant response of longer-term interest rates to unexpected monetary announcements is reflecting a response of current and expected future short-term rates -- i.e.term-structure premia are not altered by these announcements.

Consumption and Government-Budget Finance in a High-Deficit Economy

This paper characterizes empirically how government budget variables, such as spending, taxes, and deficits, affected private-sector consumption in the high-budget-deficit economy of Israel during the first half of the 1980s. The paper develops and estimates an intertemporal optimizing model of consumption choice by finite-lived individuals. The evidence supports this formulation against the Ricardian infinite-horizon case, but it does not support it when compared to the unrestricted relations in the data.

Capital inflows to Latin America

Capital inflows are not an unmitigated blessing for the receiving region or country; in fact, they may pose serious dilemmas for economic policy. Large capital inflows are often associated with money and credit expansion, inflationary pressures, a real exchange rate appreciation, and a deterioration in the current account of the balance of payments. In addition, the history of Latin America provides ample evidence that massive capital inflows may also have strong impacts on the stock market, the real estate market, and the money market-impacts which may well threaten tbe stability of these markets and of the financial system as a whole.capital inflows exchange rate policy reserves capital controls

Living with Dollarization and the Route to Dedollarization

Financial dollarization in Latin America has been growing over time in spite of a major reduction in inflation and a shift toward central bank independence. After discussing the key stylized facts of dollarization and dedollarization in the region, we discuss the risks this process poses to the region. In particular, we explore the validity of concerns about the effectiveness of monetary policy in a dollarized economy and about a loss of seigniorage revenue in such an economy. After concluding that to a large extent these concerns lack empirical support, we focus on the main reason for concern: increased vulnerability due to the dollarization of public and private debt. We emphasize the importance of precautionary/regulatory measures to limit the scope of mismatches originating from liability dollarization, and of developing financial instruments designed to hedge against currency risk. Moreover, we deal with the experience of policies directly aimed at deepening domestic financial markets in local currency assets and in gradually lengthening the maturity of these assets. We find that important lessons from the experience of dedollarization in Israel are of particular interest for Latin America.

Monetary Policy Rules and Transmission Mechanisms Under Inflation Targeting in Israel

This paper analyzes Israel's recent inflation targeting policies and their role in the disinflation process in the 1990s. Special features of Israel underlying inflation targeting are: a high-inflation history; lack of consensus about the benefits from reducing inflation and thereby lack of full credibility of monetary policy; the existence of monetary policy overburdening in its attempts to meet the inflation targets; the coexistence of an exchange rate band together with the inflation targets. A key finding of the econometric analysis is that there is a time-varying passthrough from exchange rates to prices, which depends on the state of the business cycle and the size of exchange rate fluctuations. In the present empirical specifications, monetary conditions are shown to have played a key role in accounting for the various turning points along the disinflation process. Estimates of an analogue of a 'Taylor rule' indicate that in contrast with the monetary accommodation that prevailed in the past, monetary policy in the more recent years has acted as an inflation stabilizer.

Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America

The characteristfcs of recent capital inflows into Latin America are discussed. It is argued that these inflows are partly explained by conditions outside the region, like recession in the United States and lower international interest rates. This suggests the possibility that a reversal of those conditions may lead to a future capital outflow, fncreasing the macroeconomic vulnerability of Latin American economies. Policy options are argued to be lfmited.capital flow reversals inter national interest rates reserves current account crises

Shifting Nominal Anchors: The Experience of Mexico

In the mid-1980’s Mexico successfully brought down its high rate of inflation by using the exchange rate as nominal anchor in combination with strict fiscal discipline, tight monetary policy, and incomes policy. This paper discusses the role of exchange rate policy as nominal anchor in Mexico and develops the inflation target as the monetary framework for anchoring prices. It also describes how Mexico is applying this frame work while shifting to a more flexible exchange regime and discusses the role of the newly independent central bank and monetary policy in keeping inflation under control while shifting nominal anchors. This paper describes the situations as seen in early 1994, and makes no attempt to describe the events that led to the 1994 crisis and its aftermath.